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National Weather Service
Short Range Forecast Discussion
NWS Weather Prediction Center College Park MD
352 AM EDT Fri Apr 17 2026
Valid 12Z Fri Apr 17 2026 - 12Z Sun Apr 19 2026
...Widespread severe weather and flash flood threat across much of the Midwest and central/southern Plains Friday...
...Late season wintry weather for the northern/central Rockies and Upper Midwest/Great Lakes Friday...
...Cold front to bring an end to the well above average, hot conditions across the central to eastern U.S. heading into the weekend...
Another active day of Spring weather is in store for much of the central U.S. as an amplified upper-level pattern remains in place. An upper-trough that has lingered over the western U.S. will finally begin to move eastward bringing a cold front and trailing dryline across the Midwest and central/southern Plains. Ample moisture and warm, buoyant air will already be in place supporting the development of widespread thunderstorms through the day. The Storm Prediction Center (SPC) has highlighted the Upper Mississippi Valley southwest through the Lower Missouri Valley and into portions of the central/southern Plains with an Enhanced Risk of severe weather (level 3/5), with a broader Slight Risk (level 2/5) covering the general region. Increasing deep and low-level shear with the approach of the upper-trough will support thunderstorms capable of very large hail and tornadoes, some of which could be strong. The best chance for strong tornadoes will be over the Upper Mississippi Valley while the best chance for very large hail will be over portions of the central/southern Plains. Storms are also expected to grow upscale into the evening hours leading to a significant damaging wind threat across portions of the Lower Missouri Valley into the Middle Mississippi Valley. In addition, the plentiful moisture and increased lift with the approaching upper-trough will favor thunderstorms with hourly rain rates of 1-2" bringing the threat of scattered flash flooding. A Slight Risk of Excessive Rainfall (level 2/4) remains outlined from the Great Lakes southwest through the Middle Mississippi Valley and into portions of the central/southern Plains. A locally higher threat could materialize from the Lower Missouri Valley southwest through the MO/KS/AR/OK where ground conditions are more sensitive to additional rainfall.
Beyond the noted thunderstorm threats, winter weather still remains in the forecast, with a wintry mix likely north and west of the surface low track through the Upper Midwest and into the Upper Great Lakes. Some light to moderate accumulating snow is also expected under the base of the upper-trough to the west through the northern/central Rockies and perhaps into portions of the adjacent High Plains. Gusty winds and very low humidity west of the dryline over the southern High Plains has also prompted a Critical Risk of Fire Weather (level 2/3) from the SPC for Friday. The upper-trough and associated surface cold front will continue east on Saturday, bringing thunderstorms to the Interior Northeast southwest through the Ohio/Tennessee/Lower Mississippi Valleys and into southern Texas. Less instability and the expectation thunderstorms will mostly develop along the cold front will limit the severe weather potential compared to Friday, with a Slight Risk in place for the Upper Ohio Valley and portions of the Lower Great Lakes mainly for the threat of some damaging wind gusts. The progressive front will bring a lower flash flood risk as well, with an isolated threat for portions of the Lower Mississippi Valley and southeast Texas. Showers and thunderstorm chances will shift into the Northeast/Mid-Atlantic southwest to the Gulf Coast on Sunday. Elsewhere, some scattered showers and thunderstorms are possible Friday for portions of coastal New England and the Mid-Atlantic as an upper-wave passes overhead. Some showers will begin to move into the Pacific Northwest late Saturday and into Sunday.
The well above average heat across much of the eastern and central U.S. under a prominent upper-ridge will remain in place one more day on Friday before the noted cold front begins to bring much cooler, generally below average temperatures. Highs in the 70s and 80s across the Midwest and 80s to low 90s southwest into the southern Plains Friday will drop into the 40s and 50s to the north and 60s and 70s to the south on Saturday. Similar highs to the east throughout the Ohio/Tennessee Valleys and Mid-Atlantic into the Southeast through Saturday will fall to these cooler temperatures by Sunday. Meanwhile, the western U.S. will see a warm-up following the departure of the upper-trough and as upper-ridging then builds in. Below average highs across much of the Interior West will rise from the 40s and 50s on Friday into the 60s by Saturday and 70s Sunday. Chilly highs in the 30s and 40s over much of the northern/central Plains into Saturday will jump into the 60s and 70s for many by Sunday. The West Coast will remain more temperate and around average, with highs in the 50s and 60s for the Pacific Northwest and 60s and 70s into California.
Putnam